The demographic trends observed over recent years in Grand Paris - a decline in the Parisian population and slowing down of its growth on a metropolitan scale - highlight changes in long-term trends.
This note takes stock of the demographic dynamics during the years preceding the health crisis in Paris and in Grand Paris Metropolis. It shows that between 2014 and 2020, the Parisian population fell each year at a rate of -0.6% (i.e. an average of 12,400 inhabitants). This decrease can mainly be explained by the rise in the percentage of unoccupied housing which had a direct impact on accentuating the migratory deficit.
The number of people moving into Paris fell each year, particularly among the 20-24 age range, while departures remained relatively stable.
In terms of households, the total number (corresponding to arrivals - departures) was more in deficit for couples without children and much less positive for single people.
Reduced access to home ownership and the private rental accommodation seemed to slow down the arrival of new households from the middle and upper-middle income range. However, there was no increase in departures of established families during the period.
On the scale of the Grand Paris Metropolis, the population grew by 0.2% per year over the same period, at a slower pace than the previous period. Grand Paris Metropolis appears to have been less dynamic compared with Nantes, Toulouse, Bordeaux and Rennes where the growth of the population was much more sustained.
Similarly to Paris, there were fewer new arrivals but the number of people leaving increased, especially single people. Generally speaking, these trends seem to be linked to the increased difficulty to access property and rented housing limiting new households from moving into the metropolitan area outside Paris proper and accelerating certain departures.
This note will be supplemented in early 2024 by a study currently underway on the impact of the health crisis on the migration of residents, based on a multi-source, partnership approach. The aim is to measure the intensity of the observed flow on the scale of Grand Paris since 2020 and to provide some information on the profiles of the households concerned, the areas where departures and arrivals take place and the local impact of these migrations.
